A rumour has started spreading online that a sex scandal involving a major US presidential candidate is being covered up by the DC press corp and the media elite in the US. Perhaps covered up is too strong a word, as the accusation is not so much that the story is being stopped, but rather those who are in the know are unsure as to how to handle the information.

I find this rumour in the US to be quite interesting. Let us assume for a moment that it is false, and in fact is the emergence of a new style of old school dirty tricks. Feeding disinformation and attacks via the media is not new to politics. However using the blogosphere to do so is relatively new, especially getting bloggers to rally against a mainstream media conspiracy, while also spreading damaging rumours about particular presidential candidates.

This works into my concept of the Internet Fog of War in which once a storm has started, its easier for additional agents and provocateurs to enter the fray and reinforce the negative message and perpetuate the chaos.

So imagine in this case that someone feeds disinformation to a blogger, the blogger reports on it and opens a can of worms that allows for other blogs to pick up on the original story and add their own analysis that gives life and reality to the gossip.

It started with this post, by Ron Rosenbaum, which I have to admit, as an interesting read, adds to the possibility that the rumour is true, while at the same time Ron does raise really important arguments with regard to a democratic media and society with open elections. Explicitly Ron is correct in saying if the mainstream media are sitting on a rumour that they believe is true, then they really must report it.

Further, those who do believe that the mainstream media are involved in a conspiracy would take it upon themselves to use whatever means they can to solve the mystery and out the story on their own, breaking the media monopoly. Thus we see lots of speculation as to what this sex scandal could be about.

Speculation quickly focuses on Democratic candidates under the belief that the media would never protect a Republican from a sex scandal. In searching through blogs I've found a majority of people who believe there is a conspiracy, believe that it involves Hillary and a lesbian lover (or lovers). Personally if I were to believe the scandal exists I'd guess it involved Barack Obama.

Yet it also seems quite possible that no scandal exists at all, yet this is just fuel for bloggers to create fake photos involving Hillary Clinton engaged in sexual acts with other Women. It strikes me as not at all ludicrous that a rogue (or not so rogue) Republican strategist thought of this whole disinformation campaign as a way to begin the great Flame War of 2008.

If Hillary Clinton does win the Democratic Presidential Nomination, which at present she is on course to do, then the campaign against her will be nasty and the basketball equivalent of a full-court press.

Perhaps what we're seeing is the beginning of that campaign. Rumours of scandals that have no connection to reality but become fodder for blogs and at a certain point overtake reality as enough people believe in them that they may as well be true.

Once enough blog entries exist to create at least some belief in the false scandal, the fake photos and video mash ups will step in to finish the job and create a sub-text or alternative narrative to the mainstream campaigns.

These Internet myths will play a central role in building a base of believers who if successful will be at the front line of a messy and nasty campaign.

My friend Greg Elmer at the Infoscape Research Lab has been doing empirical research around political internet activity during (and to a lesser extent between) elections. I think the next step for researchers like Greg will be to track the spreading of rumours, as well as trace their origin and verify their accuracy. This type of metrics would help us better understand how the system might be attacked and protect the voters from abuse and deception.